Ukraine/Russia conflict

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eMTe
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Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by eMTe » Thu Mar 06, 2014 13:39

What will be the outcome?

The fall of Yanukovytch created dangerous situation for Putin and Russian politics - status quo of having major former soviet republic de facto finlandized has been disturbed - new government is openly pro-West. Anschluss of Crimea is imminent. So may happen with eastern parts of Ukraine, but time will tell how strong pro-Russian sentiments are in this region. Economic warfare as punishment is imminent. What's worst for Ukraine is that it has geopolitical importance, but almost no economical importance - it's one huge potato field, easy to spare by the West.

Bottom line is: Russia will take what it wants to take, Ukraine won't react to avoid bloodshed, US and EU will express their deepest displeasure with Russian politics and everything will return to normalcy; next step is fall of pro-West government, unable to deal with crisis without Russia's help.

Sad to say, but at the moment probably the best option for Ukraine is to stop revolting against Big Brother. Time for changes has not come yet.
"As you have noticed over the years, we are not angry people." (itebygur)

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Tormuse
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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by Tormuse » Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:01

Seeing that I'm part Ukrainian, I figure I should reply to this. :)

I don't think this is going to end well for anybody. The only question is, how badly is it going to end? Any Ukrainians with any sense of history know how badly their country was ravaged during Stalin's days when they were occupied by the Soviet Union and I'm sure they will not tolerate Russian troops in their country. I expect that there are a large bulk of Ukrainians who are prepared to defend their home to the death. Also, Putin has made it clear that he has no intention of negotiating with the new Ukrainian government that deposed Yanukovich, saying that he considers them terrorists. Both sides of this conflict look like they are not going to give in and at this point, I'd say bloodshed is inevitable and I'm really worried about Ukraine's future.

But what really worries me is that many countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, and Italy, have denounced what Russia is doing and say that there will be "consequences." I don't know if they would go as far as military action against Russia, but I know that the U.S. president, Obama, is in talks with the new Ukrainian leader and I think if a conflict starts between the U.S. and Russia, we could be looking at the beginning of World War 3!

Unlikely? Perhaps? I find it hard to say. Public sentiment has been turning against Russia for the last little while, so I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility.
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eMTe
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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by eMTe » Wed Mar 12, 2014 1:17

You don't start the world war for a potato field, no matter how big. Oil field, now that would be the reason. This is good news for world, because Ukraine has no oil.

One important aspect which people not reading about Russia on daily basis or not living there frequently overlook is that this is the country whose both elites and society are mentally in XIX century. This is why Russia can play the role of unpredictable madman while European countries can use only its soft powers. In Europe life of a single person weighs more than life of thousands of Russians. Russia can send whole army of 19-year old conscripts to die for a small strap of land without consequences to its government while even accidental drowning during training of a soldier from France, Denmark or GB from would immediately make headlines, not to mention accusations about soldiers' safety. European societies reached the stage of its development where they are unable to respond militarily. Putin knows it and in fact if he wanted he can take the whole Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova before end of year. The only country who can react is U.S. but since there's no oil in aforementioned countries there is also little reason for war. Politically, all former Sovier republics except Baltic countries are for two decades de facto finlandized, so whatever happens to Ukraine doesnt change the balance of powers.

Bloodshed is inevitable only if Ukraine will decide to respond with military, but I doubt there will be any serious war - Russia despite having obsolete army still has crushing advantage over Ukrainian forces. I believe some sort of limited guerrilla warfare against invading troops is possible. But I repeat: I dont believe there will be military conflict. Russia wants weak buffer country separating it from NATO zone and Ukraine will probably agree for this role to avoid serious tragedy.

---

On completely another note, there is something sexually fascinating in this brutal naked force represented by Russia.
"As you have noticed over the years, we are not angry people." (itebygur)

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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by eMTe » Thu Mar 20, 2014 15:16

"As you have noticed over the years, we are not angry people." (itebygur)

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eMTe
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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by eMTe » Mon Mar 24, 2014 22:45

"As you have noticed over the years, we are not angry people." (itebygur)

hello_kitty
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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by hello_kitty » Tue May 06, 2014 11:52

War in Ukraine is already in progress, but it's different kind of war. Putin knows exactly what to do.

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eMTe
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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by eMTe » Fri Mar 13, 2015 9:35

"As you have noticed over the years, we are not angry people." (itebygur)

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Re: Ukraine/Russia conflict

Post by benny » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:26

I'm afraid of it... I live in Slovakia, sometimes in Poland. It's near these countries. i don't know what will be... I hope that will be peace. Beetween them and beetween another countries.

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